The Junk Science of Climate Change

[caroljane]

Poltiics always dominate K-12 soft subjects, you would probably say, Adam. Social sciences etc. Literature maybe.

But science?

Kids always sense controversy. Apply science first, real basic science. Do not start w/ competitive ideas, based on complex science, and beyond a 12 year olds scope, even smartest 12 year old.

[Selene]

Carol:

Politics always dominate K-12 subjects? Really? And, if that is true, should it not stop immediately?

Adam

[Selene]

Isn't rhetoric for persuasion to your own position, not critical examination of an issue?

Persuasively,

Carol

Carol:

One aspect of rhetoric is "...developing all the available means of persuasion in the given case." However, it is a much broader analytical discipline.

"Rhetoric as a course of study has evolved significantly since its ancient beginnings. Through the ages, the study and teaching of rhetoric has adapted to the particular exigencies of the time and venue.

[20]

The study of rhetoric has conformed to a multitude of different applications, ranging from architecture to literature.

[21]

Although the curriculum has transformed in a number of ways, it has generally emphasized the study of principles and rules of composition as a means for moving audiences.

Generally speaking, the study of rhetoric trains students to speak and/or write effectively, as well as critically understand and analyze discourse."

This highlighted section is what I am specifically referring to.

Adam

[dennislmay]

I prefer the National Academy and other such actual scientists weighing in.

The American Physical Society and UN approved climate scientists have already shown

that they cannot police themselves. I've seen many "actual scientists" weigh in who've

never done any hydrodynamic modeling in real scientific and engineering circumstances in

their lives. Sorry arm chair experts with political and huge financial incentives are not

qualitifed "actual scientists" in this application.

Dennis

[Selene]

Poltiics always dominate K-12 soft subjects, you would probably say, Adam. Social sciences etc. Literature maybe.



But science?



Kids always sense controversy. Apply science first, real basic science. Do not start w/ competitive ideas, based on complex science, and beyond a 12 year olds scope,  even smartest 12 year old.

I beg to differ Carol...




What Is a Flame?: The First Prize-Winner at Alan Alda’s Science Video Competition

in Animation, Education, K-12, Video - Science | June 8th, 2012 Leave a Comment

If an eleven year old child asked you to explain what a flame was, what would you say? When Alan Alda was 11 and posed the question, his teacher replied, “Oxydation.”

Unsatisfied and still curious, Alda went on to help create the Center for Communicating Science at Stony Brook University. This year the Center issued the Flame Challenge, inviting all comers to take a stab at explaining what a flame is. The only requirement: Make your explanation clear, and interesting, to an 11-year-old.

Scientists from all over the world sent in entries – some were just one sentence (one actually stated, “A flame is oxidation.” Come on!). Another was a 37-page written explanation. After judging the entries (all of which were pre-screened by scientists for accuracy), classrooms of 11-year-olds declared a winner: an animated video by Ben Ames, a doctoral student in quantum optics.

In the seven-and-a-half minute video, the congenial voice of a scientist (Ames) explains a flame to a bearded man chained in hell.

“See that fire over there?” Ames asks. “Have you ever really wondered what the flames are from that fire? I mean look at all those colors!”

He goes on charmingly to describe the process, without avoiding big words that kids actually seem to love: when atoms (carbon and hydrogen) react to heat and change form, that’s pyrolysis. That chemical reaction radiates light: chemiluminescence. Then the changed carbon and hydrogen interact with oxygen and that’s—you guessed it—oxidation.

But 11-year-olds love music too, right? Ames wraps it up with a song:

The fuel loses mass, it turns to gas

Before the next change through, some atoms shine blue

When the process is complete, it gives off heat

Extra carbon will glow—red, orange, yellow.

Kate Rix is an Oakland-based education writer. See more of her work at katerixwriter.com.

http://www.openculture.com/2012/06/iwhat_is_a_flamei_the_first_prize-winner_at_alan_aldas_science_video_competition.html

[dennislmay]

In any case, Dear Reader may wish to read evidence of multiple experimental regimes that did and do just what Dennis says has not occured. Rather than as he attests, without evidence, "NO FIELD EXPERIMENTS WERE EVER DONE" -- we need only examine the record of research.

Ooops, there is the European Arctic Stratospheric Ozone Experiment (EASOE) and the Second European Stratospheric Arctic and Mid-latitude Experiment (SESAME). Oh, and the Third European Stratospheric Experiment on Ozone (THESEO). However we view it, Dennis's claim is untrue on its face.

In an elementary understanding of the scientific method experiments involve more than just observation and conclusion. These so called European Stratospheric "experiments" are not experiments - they are data taking in the same sense as reading a thermometer. Real scientists and real engineers would complete the entire scientific process:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method

1. Define a question
   
2. Gather information and resources (observe)
   
3. Form an explanatory hypothesis
   
4. Test the hypothesis by performing an experiment and collecting data in a reproducible manner
   
5. Analyze the data
   
6. Interpret the data and draw conclusions that serve as a starting point for new hypothesis
   
7. Publish results
   
8. Retest (frequently done by other scientists)
   

The iterative cycle inherent in this step-by-step methodology goes from point 3 to 6 back to 3 again.

[field experiments supporting the interative cycle has never been part of the modeling for the Ozone Hole or Climate Change - an elementary requirement of hydrodynamic modeling]

In the case of a claim concerning atmospheric gases real scientists and real engineers would first get a background sampling of existing conditions - these three atmospheric sampling attempts would resemble a start to this process which would also include suspended solids at all altitudes, temperatures, and a number of other factors. The experiment portion begins when real scientists and real engineers would use isotopically traceable versions of the compounds being studied and traceable suspended solids also known to affect Ozone. These trace particles and compounds would be released then sampling done to verify both atmospheric transport modeling and sources and sinks modeling of these compounds and suspended solids - as well as verifying the atmospheric chemistry proposed in the actual atmosphere with traceable chemicals. This was never done - what was done does not constitute an experiment. Calling it an experiment does not make it so.

Had the various actual experiments been done then there could have been feedback correcting various assumptions in the hydrodynamic modeling. Instead anything can be inserted into the modeling to produce the dersired political results.

The science has yet to be done on the "Ozone Hole". It was never done on purpose - the intention was to do nothing that could challenge the political and economic aims of the Ozone Hole crisis. Regulation happened, political insiders gathered information for stock trading knowing who the winners and losers would be in this multi-billion dollar industrial gas changeover, and the stage was set for the "Climate Change" crisis with financial and political stakes magntiudes higher. No science required last time set the stage for no science this time.

Dennis

[Brant Gaede]

Some data was found that posited that the "Ozone Hole" was there in the late 1950s and even bigger than currently. We don't hear much about the "Hole" any more. The statists switched horses, which is typical: the first horse was the moral and rational base of collectivism which dissolved in blood and poverty, the second horse was Earth Day, then nuclear winter then Alar then global cooling then the "Ozone Hole" then global warming then climate change today. The horse is the dominant Big Media which loves the left and hates the right.

--Brant

[dennislmay]

Some data was found that posited that the "Ozone Hole" was there in the late 1950s and even bigger than currently. We don't hear much about the "Hole" any more. The statists switched horses, which is typical: the first horse was the moral and rational base of collectivism which dissolved in blood and poverty, the second horse was Earth Day, then nuclear winter then Alar then global cooling then the "Ozone Hole" then global warming then climate change today. The horse is the dominant Big Media which loves the left and hates the right.

--Brant

I'm glad you mentioned Alar and the history of other Socialist/media creations. There have been a number of created crisis events in the food industry. Such events are a significant way to gather wealth through insider trading while creating more government intervention.

Dennis

[Selene]

Somebody wake up Jerry and get him on their case, clearly a Bilderberg conspiracy to kill Ron Paul with apples has been released...

==========================================================================================================

Here is part of the Wiki on Alar and other chemicals that are sprayed on fruits, purportedly to enhance their color, regulate their growth and make their harvest easier:

"Backlash

Apple growers in

Washington

filed a

libel

suit against CBS,

NRDC

and

Fenton Communications

, claiming the scare cost them $100 million.

[6]

The suit was dismissed in 1994.

[7]

While Alar has been verified as a human carcinogen, the amount necessary for it to be dangerous may well be extremely high.

[8]

The lab tests that prompted the scare required an amount of Alar equal to over 5,000 gallons (20,000 L) of apple juice per day.

[6]

Consumers Union

ran its own studies and estimated the human lifetime cancer risk to be 5 per million, as compared to the previously-reported figure of 50 cases per million.

[9]

Generally, EPA considers lifetime cancer risks in excess of 1 per million to be cause for action.

[10]

Elizabeth Whelan

and her organization, the

American Council on Science and Health

(ACSH), which had received $25,000 from Alar's manufacturer,

[11]

worked to establish a narrative of the Alar episode as a scare. The ACSH claimed that Alar and its breakdown product

UDMH

had not been shown to be carcinogenic. Whelan's campaign was so effective that today, "Alar scare" is shorthand among news media and food industry professionals for an irrational, emotional public scare based on propaganda rather than facts. There remains disagreement about the appropriateness of the response to Alar, but daminozide is classified as a probable human carcinogen by the EPA and is listed as a known carcinogen under

California

's

Prop 65

,

[11]

while its breakdown product UDMH is listed as Prop 65 carcinogen and

IARC

classifies it as "possible" carcinogen and EPA as a "probable" carcinogen.

[12]

http://en.wikipedia....wiki/Daminozide <<<<rest of the Wiki posting

==================================================================================

The Natural Resource Defense Council, headed by John Adams and a big O'bama man, has set the Council's priorities and how they will be measured:

In 2005, NRDC undertook a comprehensive strategic planning process, in which we established institutional priorities and set goals for how we could advance these priority issues. In 2010, we conducted a five-year update, and the result is a revised strategic plan that incorporates the lessons learned during the last five years and sets a course for the next five years and beyond.

To measure our progress, we have identified benchmarks for each one of our priorities. Here are just a few examples of what success would look like within the next five years.

A cap is set on the

amount of carbon American polluters

[

translation: let's help kill off American industry and jobs

] can release, and as a result, private investment in clean energy grows by hundreds of billions of dollars and workers find jobs manufacturing solar components and hybrid cars[

translation: let's help launder tax payer dollars to O'bama's contributors, provide no jobs and bankrupt the businesses advancing the marxist agenda; see Solydra

].

Overfishing in America's ocean waters ends, and dwindling fish stocks begin to recover[

translation: let's help kill of the fishing industry in the US, eliminate more jobs and advance the marxist agenda

].

A majority of Americans no longer assume that economic prosperity and environmental protection are at odds, and recognize that efficiency creates good jobs[

translation: "good" jobs are jobs that will destroy America and "bad" jobs are mean and cruel right wing capitalist jobs that want to kill Americans

] that cannot be outsourced and that clean air and water save health care costs and increase productivity.

Green infrastructure solutions-such as pocket parks and grassy swales that slash stormwater pollution-are required in all new development in California's urban centers[

translation: let's completely destroy all human vestige in California and turn it into a natural theme park that no humans can use because humans are a planetary disease and need to be eradicated

].

The Chilean public decides to protect its wild rivers from hydroelectric dams and meet its growing electricity demand through clean energy measures instead[

translation: capitalism is working in Chile and we have to find a way to kill it

].

California's smart growth planning law is adopted in several regions in the nation, reducing oil imports, climate change, and the time wasted in traffic, setting the stage for its adoption by the federal government[

translation: Let's make sure California collapses and sucks the rest of America into our marxist wet dream economic sink hole

].

Industry is required to demonstrate that the chemicals they manufacture are safe for human health and the environment. Starting with the apparel industry, multinational corporations develop global supply chain policies that include quantifiable measures of success, including cutting pollution discharge and more efficient energy and water use[

translation: except for Communist countries like China that can continue to pollute, kill people and suppress human freedom

].

======================================

Yep sounds like an excellent, objective and pure as the driven snow organization...just don't drink the yellow snow Koolade...

[anthony]

Tony has yet to address my question: if Skepticism is so awful, what then explains your (Tony's) skepticism about Anthropogenic Global Warming?

Simply: my skepticism is the *methodological* sort. Insufficient data, experiment, and

consensus. Excess extrapolation and predictions. Of course my opinions are really only

induced, but by the sheer magnitude of time and scale of climate and atmosphere, I have personal doubts.

However, all through I have not argued the science. I am doubtful and suspicious of

the people involved. If there are any ideological lefties/socialists/Statists who have

not jumped on the AGW bandwagon - I'd like to hear of them. (There may be a few.)

Does this not raise your suspicions?

To repeat, for the sake of argument - as I said earlier - I'd be prepared to concede that 100% of GW is anthropogenic.

That out of the way, it is the motives, politics, and philosophy of AGW, I'm interested in here.

The radical AGW'er is the true, *philosophical* sceptic, I think.

As an ex-intrinsicist, he demands knowledge by revelation, still.

The collective Authority simply replaces the god Authority.

[dennislmay]

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/06/12/un-climate-organization-wants-immunities-against-charges-conflict-interest/?test=latestnews

Attempt to get immunity for the largest single attempted financial crime committed in human history.

Dennis

[Selene]

http://www.foxnews.c...test=latestnews

Attempt to get immunity for the largest single attempted financial crime committed in human history.

Dennis

I would support a new set of Nuremberg Trials replete with public executions on pay for view.

[dennislmay]

http://www.foxnews.c...test=latestnews

Attempt to get immunity for the largest single attempted financial crime committed in human history.

Dennis

I would support a new set of Nuremberg Trials replete with public executions on pay for view.

Sadly since they have been destroying data in some cases and hiding it in others the bodies will be hard to find.

Dennis

[Selene]

http://www.foxnews.c...test=latestnews

Attempt to get immunity for the largest single attempted financial crime committed in human history.

Dennis

I would support a new set of Nuremberg Trials replete with public executions on pay for view.

Sadly since they have been destroying data in some cases and hiding it in others the bodies will be hard to find.

Dennis

Well then those are the ones who will be shot while trying to escape!

[william.scherk]

Godwin's 'law,' in all its splendour. If an argument wobbles on its wheels, invoke the Nazis and for good measure 'the Soviets.'

[media=]

[Brant Gaede]

Very entertaining. Thx, Bill.

http://www.oism.org/s32p31.htm

--Brant

throwing another log on the fire

[dennislmay]

http://traktoria.org/files/underwater_explosion/hydrocode_methodologies_for_underwater_explosion_structure__medium_interaction.pdf

This is typical of the kind of work done in hydrocodes in one particular field. HULL and EPIC in 2d and 3d versions are the ones I worked

with. Matuska & Obsorn [HULL] , and Johnson [EPIC] were our contractors. At our lab a number of people did field experiments in

support of code development. In one set of materials experiments I was familar with something like 1,100 to 1,200 identical long narrow

ceramic cylinders were fired into an anvil at various speeds and documented with high speed photography in just one set of experiments for

one particular kind of cermamic. The same material was also tested in other diameters and at higher velocities requiring light gas guns.

Sample shots where the cylinder did not impact at a right angle were discarded. These literally thousands of shots were used to develop

the material equations of state for this one particular material. Similar experiments were done to test hundreds of materials and thousands

of chemcial compounds over many decades. Some equations of state documentation would combine numerous studies into the best model

for a material.

As you will note in the paper and in other hydrocode papers even with all of these experiments and feedback into the code - approximations

are what you get. Once you get into multiple materials and longer time spans the model cannot do reality justice. You simply don't have

enough information or computational capability.

In the case of the Ozone Hole and Climate Change modeling - experiment and feedback into the code portions was bypassed and

subsituted with simple observation and coding. No thousands of experiments with different compounds or particles being traced, no

feedback of those traced particles to verify atmospheric transport models, chemical breakdown in the environment, or the possibility of

introducing new discovery of any of the dozens of other effects unaccounted for.

When you see what is done in real engineering and science and compare it to Ozone Hole and Climate Change modeling it is not difficult

to see there was never any intention of doing the real science. In real science you have to answer for your results and how you got there.

When the fad fizzles maybe a new generation of real scientists and engineers like a modern day Matuska can come foward and clean

up the hoaxes and explain the limitations of what such modeling can actually say.

Dennis

[william.scherk]

Very entertaining. Thx, Bill.

http://www.oism.org/s32p31.htm

--Brant

throwing another log on the fire

Free burning fuel, that is what we need, Brant (as we wait for Dennis to enter discussion).

But as for the Oregon Institute of etcetera, the name conceals a crank (from http://www.durangobill.com/GwdLiars/OregonInstituteOfScienceAndMedicine.html ):

Durango Bill’s Debunking the Deniers of Global Warming

Global Warming Denial Liars

The “Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine” (It’s actually Arthur Robinson’s farm in very rural Oregon)

The “Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine” (OISM) advertises itself as “a non-profit research institute”. Global Warming Deniers frequently promote the “Oregon Petition” which is one of the OISM’s products. In reality, the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine is a farm in very rural Oregon some 6 linear miles southeast of Cave Junction, Oregon. (Population ~1,425 http://www.city-data...ion-Oregon.html)

Its founder/owner, Arthur B Robinson, promotes the “Robinson Curriculum” - a “Jesus-Plus-Nothing-Else” home-school system. http://groups.yahoo....onUsers4Christ/.

Isn’t it amazing how the Internet can be used to transform a farm into the “Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine”? (There may have been a tax advantage in registering the farm as “a non-profit research institute”.)

[caroljane]

Brant, I bet you only found it because you perceived Oism to be a contraction.

[Brant Gaede]

Brant, I bet you only found it because you perceived Oism to be a contraction.

My friend Petr Beckmann published the Access to Energy letter for 20 years before dying in 1993. Arthur Robinson took it over and has been publishing it since. Petr was a theoretical physicist, Dr. Robinson is a chemist who worked with Linus Pauling, especially with vitamin C. You can ignore the non-sequitur slander Bill has quoted, but click on the links anyway. I like to read things from different perspectives than my own. If I had children I'd probably use the Robinson curriculum to educate them through high school, but I'd monitor the material closely just in case, but it's not centered on any religious pap. One great thing about it is you don't teach; it's mostly the kids--computers and laser printer--learning. It's much more complicated than this, of course. The student has to be motivated--has to do the work. I'm thinking of getting the material and plowing through it to see how I butt up against the math, a gross deficiency in my education, but OL comes first! One noteworthy item about the Robinson home: no TVs!

--Brant

I love cranks, even cranky Bill

[Selene]

Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released... and here is the chart to prove it

• The figures reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012 there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures
  
• This means that the ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996
  

Read more: http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz29IAsGvZk

[dennislmay]

Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released... and here is the chart to prove it

• The figures reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012 there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures
  
• This means that the ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996
  

Read more: http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz29IAsGvZk

Calling it "science" is the first mistake. Climate modelers have avoided every opportunity to do science 101 which means field

experiments to verify code. Real modelers would realize that hydrocode modeling shows without question that they are not

even close to having good data, good equations of state, or an understanding of the variables involved to even begin to do

realistic modeling over any useful period of time. This is political science not physical science.

Dennis

[BaalChatzaf]

Climate craft or art (I won't call it science) is about where astronomy was at the time of Claudius Ptolemy. The Climateers do not have a sound physical science underlying the phenomenon. This is no disgrace since both weather and climate are driven by chaotic dynamic, a very non-linear beast which is pretty near mathematically intractable. So the modelers model -data- with statistical and curve fitting models loaded with all sorts of variable parameters. These climate models have embedded within them the deferents and epicycles that characterized Ptolemaic astronomy.

It was not until Kepler's first cut with his three laws of planetary motion and Newton's gravitational dynamics that a genuine physical dynamics was placed under astronomy. From then on astronomy was guided by the physics. Unfortunately such a "physicalization" of weather and climate has not yet been accomplished. Which is why I say there is no climate science. There are all sorts of models with loads of adjustable doodads to refit the models as adverse data is brought in.

Alchemy was closer to real chemistry than climate modeling is to genuine climate science.

Ba'al Chatzaf

[dennislmay]

Climate craft or art (I won't call it science) is about where astronomy was at the time of Claudius Ptolemy. The Climateers do not have a sound physical science underlying the phenomenon. This is no disgrace since both weather and climate are driven by chaotic dynamic, a very non-linear beast which is pretty near mathematically intractable. So the modelers model -data- with statistical and curve fitting models loaded with all sorts of variable parameters. These climate models have embedded within them the deferents and epicycles that characterized Ptolemaic astronomy.

It was not until Kepler's first cut with his three laws of planetary motion and Newton's gravitational dynamics that a genuine physical dynamics was placed under astronomy. From then on astronomy was guided by the physics. Unfortunately such a "physicalization" of weather and climate has not yet been accomplished. Which is why I say there is no climate science. There are all sorts of models with loads of adjustable doodads to refit the models as adverse data is brought in.

Alchemy was closer to real chemistry than climate modeling is to genuine climate science.

Ba'al Chatzaf

Well said - anyone with a good grounding in the sciences and understanding of modeling can see this. It makes you

wonder about the politicians at the APS calling themselves scientists.

Dennis

[9thdoctor]

Reason Magazine has a new piece noting that in all 4 debates, there's one subject that wasn't even mentioned:

http://reason.com/blog/2012/10/23/last-nights-presidential-debate-proves-t

And on a perhaps related note, what's this business about making petrol out of the CO2 in the air?

http://www.foxnews.com/leisure/2012/10/22/british-engineers-create-gasoline-from-thin-air/?intcmp=features

They're calling it a "carbon neutral" fuel. Come again?